Oncology Drug Market Sees Strong Growth Amid Patent Cliffs and Novel Modality Shifts

Global spending on cancer medicines is projected to reach $467 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 9-12%, following a rise to $291 billion in 2025. This significant growth in the largest therapeutic sector of the global bio-pharmaceutical industry is driven by innovative drug modalities but faces headwinds from upcoming patent expirations for several major therapies.

The market's expansion has been robust, with cancer medicine spending averaging 13.4% annual growth from 2021 to 2025. In product innovation, 235 oncology drugs have launched in the past decade, 143 in the past five years, and more than 120 are expected in the next five years. However, a slowdown in growth is anticipated beginning in 2027 as key drugs lose exclusivity. On the small-molecule side, Pfizer's Ibrance (palbociclib) for breast cancer, Pfizer's/Astellas's Xtandi (enzalutamide) for prostate cancer, and AstraZeneca's/Merck & Co.'s Lynparza (olaparib) for various tumors will lose patent protection in 2027.

On the biologics side, the PD-1 inhibitors Merck & Co.'s Keytruda (pembrolizumab) and Bristol-Myers Squibb's Opdivo (nivolumab), which combined accounted for 10% of global oncology spending in 2025, are expected to face biosimilar competition starting in 2028, with the most significant impact on growth occurring in 2029. This lower growth from losses of exclusivity will be offset by the continued uptake of novel modalities, including antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), bispecific antibodies, and cell and gene therapies. These novel treatments are expected to account for nearly 20% of oncology spending in 2030, up from 10% in 2025 and 4% in 2020.

The shift is also reflected in research and development, where novel modalities collectively accounted for 33% of oncology clinical trials in 2025, tripling the 11% share in 2016. Within solid tumor trials, multispecific antibodies accounted for 10% of clinical trial starts in 2025, monospecific ADCs for 15%, and cell and gene therapies for 6%. A newly emerging category of multispecific (generally bispecific) ADCs, while accounting for a small 2% share, has seen accelerating growth, increasing from 3 to 33 clinical trial starts in the last five years. Despite these shifts, PD-1/L1 antagonists and kinase inhibitors still hold significant but declining shares, each falling from 19% of oncology trial starts in 2016 to 9% in 2025.

A major trend influencing oncology R&D is the rising role of China, with China-headquartered companies accounting for 39% of global oncology trial starts. This innovation pipeline includes new therapies targeting specific mechanisms. For instance, protein degraders are identified as a key theme for redefining oncology targetability in 2026, with candidates such as BeOne Medicines's BGB-16673 and Bristol-Myers Squibb's mezigdomide advancing.

Beyond oncology, the broader pharmaceutical industry is witnessing significant investment and innovation. The development of blockbuster drugs across therapeutic areas is highlighted by 11 drugs identified for their potential to transform treatment paradigms and achieve blockbuster status by 2031. This includes new approaches to metabolic diseases with drugs like Eli Lilly's orforglipron and retatrutide, which aim to reinvent weight loss treatment with oral and next-generation mechanisms. The global obesity drug market itself is projected to reach $150 billion by 2035. Meanwhile, the industry's innovation ecosystem is shaped by a diverse group of influential figures and investors whose activities intersect with drug development, manufacturing, and access, as reflected in an analysis identifying 28 billionaires with ties to the oncology sector and a combined net worth exceeding $162 billion.