Gaza Ceasefire Violations Continue as Phase II Negotiations Stall

Four months after a ceasefire was declared in Gaza in October, over 570 Palestinians have been killed and 1,500 injured, according to UN estimates. At least 108 of those killed were children and at least 67 were women.

There are increasing signs from both Israeli and foreign officials that there will be no major progress toward Phase II of the ceasefire before late February at the earliest. Top IDF sources predicted it would take months, even in a best-case scenario, before the Palestinian technocratic committee announced by the Trump administration as a key part of Phase II in January would actually start to have a concrete impact on Gazans' lives.

Board of Peace Executive Committee leader Nickolay Mladenov said in Munich that there was no basis for his oversight committee or the Palestinian technocratic committee to take any actions in Gaza until the nearly daily disruptions of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas stop. Mladenov added that if they tried to start improving the situation in Gaza while fighting was still occurring, it would only embarrass them and render their efforts ineffective.

Some of the killings took place in the vicinity of the "yellow line", the demarcation to where Israel agreed to withdraw troops, under the initial terms of the ceasefire. Others occurred much deeper into the enclave. The Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has received reports of airstrikes, bombing, shelling, navy fire, and shooting, including strikes in residential areas.

On Tuesday, two Palestinians on bicycles were killed in an Israeli drone strike. In addition to fresh attacks, some of the deaths and injuries were attributed to bombs previously dropped on Gaza during the two-year bombardment. Some 33 explosive ordnance incidents have been reported since the ceasefire came into effect, resulting in nine deaths and 65 injuries, according to the UN.

In a statement, the Israeli Defence Forces said strikes carried out since the ceasefire were "solely against terrorist targets" and that the IDF employed "all possible operational measures to mitigate harm to civilians." Citing Israeli attacks, Hamas called the ceasefire "meaningless."

The UN also recorded at least 80 reported killings of Palestinians by Hamas since the ceasefire declaration, mostly in clashes with rival families and in summary executions.

Since January, there have been no announcements or reports of the committees taking over even any civilian functions in Gaza, which Hamas has at least sometimes said publicly it is willing to pass on to them. The only reports have been about disputes between the committee and Hamas about who will manage rebuilding efforts in Gaza on behalf of the committee, with Hamas insisting on their associates holding such power, even if the Hamas high command moves into the background on political issues.

Mladenov said the various civilian committees need the International Stabilization Force (ISF) and a new Palestinian police force – one not associated with Hamas – in place. The earliest that the first piece of the ISF, some 5,000 Indonesian peacekeepers, is expected to arrive in Gaza is still weeks away. Other than Mladenov, no Israeli or American officials have even been actively discussing the Palestinian police force, such that it is very unclear when and if it will deploy.

Mladenov also said that significantly more funding must come forward for rebuilding Gaza, something that it seems will only start as of a meeting in the US on Thursday.

To date, the only concrete progress on the ground from Phase II has been the opening of the Rafah crossing. However, even that opening has been much more limited than expected in terms of how many Palestinians are allowed in and out of Gaza, and no vehicles have been allowed through the crossing to date.

Phase 1 of the deal also provided for a surge in humanitarian aid into the enclave. But UN agencies described the humanitarian situation for civilians as "hanging by a thread", with insufficient food, water and medicine reaching those in need, as winter worsened conditions.

Phase 2 of the US-brokered peace plan is officially underway. This phase stipulated the disarmament of Hamas, the deployment of an international stabilisation force and reconstruction of Gaza. Hamas has so far refused to disarm and continues to carry out attacks on rival militants. Most of Gaza was reduced to rubble over the past two years with an estimated 80% of buildings destroyed.