XRP Price Analysis: Gravestone Doji, 200-Day EMA, and Bearish Targets

XRP price surged from $1.35 to $1.65 but hit a wall, flashing a classic gravestone doji on the daily chart, signaling a potential reversal. At the time of writing, the current XRP price is hovering around the mid-$1.50 range, placing the asset back inside a consolidation band that has defined much of its recent structure.

Market analyst Ali Martinez, widely followed under the handle Ali Charts, recently noted that a “gravestone doji” is forming on XRP’s daily timeframe, calling it a “potential bullish exhaustion signal.” A gravestone doji appears when the price surges during a session but closes near its opening level, leaving a long upper wick. The structure reflects aggressive buying that ultimately gets absorbed by sellers. Historically, this pattern has preceded pullbacks in a significant number of uptrend scenarios, particularly when it forms near resistance. In XRP’s case, the rejection occurred after the move from $1.35 to $1.65, an area where overhead technical barriers remain intact.

Beyond the candlestick signal, the broader structure still favors caution. A descending trendline extending from the previous $3.68 peak continues to cap advances. Immediate resistance is seen near $2.11, while the 200-day exponential moving average sits slightly higher around $2.14. A decisive daily close above these levels would likely shift the narrative toward base formation and medium-term recovery. However, failure to reclaim the 50-day EMA near $1.77 keeps the broader downtrend technically intact. On the weekly timeframe, the 200 moving average is being closely monitored. Analysts suggest that if this longer-term support holds, a breakout from the falling wedge structure could materialize before mid-year.

Zooming into the 4-hour and 1-hour charts, XRP today appears to be trading inside a range between roughly $1.35 and $1.50. Demand has formed around $1.3777, creating what some traders consider a tactical accumulation zone. The latest technical outlook highlights a possible ABC corrective pattern. Price previously touched $1.50 before pulling back toward the $1.35–$1.40 support band. The key question now is whether this represents a healthy retracement before continuation or the early stages of a deeper move toward $1.25. Volume metrics show equilibrium, suggesting indecision rather than aggressive positioning. Futures open interest has also declined sharply from previous highs, reflecting reduced speculative conviction.

XRP lost the 200-week EMA at $1.40 at the end of March, which is the same technical level it lost in May 2022 before crashing 50% from $0.57 to $0.28. XRP has had three major peaks—$3.84 in 2018, $1.96 in 2021, and $3.65 in July 2025—and each time the selloff that followed eventually brought the price back down to the 200-week EMA. After the 2018 high, XRP lost the 200-week EMA and kept falling for nearly two years until it bottomed at $0.11 in March 2020. It happened again in May 2022 when XRP lost the 200-week EMA at $0.57 and crashed another 50% to $0.28, which ended up being the absolute bottom of that bear market. What made that 2022 drop tricky is that the XRP price bounced 195% from $0.28 to $0.80 along the way, and most people assumed the worst was over. But the price was still below the 200-week EMA during that entire rally, and it eventually rolled over again. Analyst ChartNerd has been pointing this out that these bounces look like recoveries, but until the price gets back above the 200-week EMA and holds it, they tend to be traps.

ChartNerd's $0.80 target comes from the 2-week Gaussian Channel, a long-term volatility indicator that has caught every XRP bear market bottom going back nearly a decade. In March 2017, XRP bottomed at $0.0048, right at the lower Gaussian band. In March 2020, it bottomed at $0.1049, again at the lower band, and in June 2022, it was $0.2875. Each time, the XRP price fell until it tagged that lower channel and then reversed. The upper band of the Gaussian Channel currently sits around $0.80 to $0.90, and that's where ChartNerd expects this cycle's bottom to form. Analyst EGRAG Crypto flagged a separate bearish signal—the 21-week EMA crossing below the 50-week EMA. That was the same cross that appeared in March 2022 when XRP was at $0.93 before crashing 69% to $0.28. EGRAG's target range of $0.85 to $0.91 falls in almost the same area as ChartNerd's, and it comes from a completely different indicator. ChartNerd sees two ways XRP could drop to $0.80 from $1.30. The first is a relief rally toward $1.80 to $2.00 that fools traders into thinking the bottom is in before rolling over. The second is a faster drop where the XRP price heads straight for the $0.80 to $0.90 zone without the fake rally in between.

XRP’s chart pattern looks almost identical, but everything around it has changed. In May 2022, XRP was fighting an active SEC lawsuit that had been dragging on since December 2020. There were no ETFs or institutional partners using XRP for actual payments. The broader market was dealing with the Terra/LUNA collapse, the Fed was aggressively hiking rates, and there was nothing that could have stopped the selloff. In 2026, the SEC and CFTC have classified XRP as a commodity and XRP ETFs have pulled in over $1 billion in cumulative inflows. Goldman Sachs, Mastercard, and Deutsche Bank have all entered the XRP ecosystem, and Ripple's cross-border payment network has expanded beyond what anyone expected during the previous cycle.

While charts show hesitation, Ripple XRP news on the fundamental side presents a more nuanced picture. Brad Garlinghouse was recently appointed to the advisory committee of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a development viewed by many as a credibility boost for the broader digital asset industry. In addition, the XLS-85 token escrow feature went live on the XRP Ledger mainnet, potentially enhancing institutional use cases such as tokenized real-world assets and structured settlements. A partnership with Aviva Investors to explore tokenization initiatives has further strengthened long-term utility narratives. Despite these developments, XRP price today remains down significantly year-to-date after falling from a $2.40 yearly high to a low near $1.14. ETF-related flows have also been muted, and enthusiasm around a potential Grayscale XRP ETF or broader XRP ETF approval has yet to translate into sustained capital inflows. Legal clarity has improved compared to peak uncertainty during the XRP SEC lawsuit, but residual caution persists in segments of the market.

Key levels to watch: Resistance zones include $1.50–$1.54 (recent swing highs), $1.77 (50-day EMA), $2.10–$2.14 (trendline and 200-day EMA cluster), and $2.40 (yearly high). Support zones include $1.40 (short-term pivot), $1.35 (range floor), and $1.25–$1.30 (potential corrective target).