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Development of a Dynamic Prediction Model for Crohn's Disease-Related Intestinal Surgery Using Longitudinal Indices of Routine Blood Tests: A Single-Center Retrospective Cohort Study

NCT07644390 · Status: COMPLETED · Type: OBSERVATIONAL · Enrollment: 500

Last updated 2026-06-12

No results posted yet for this study

Summary

This single-center retrospective cohort study aims to develop and internally validate a dynamic prediction model that uses longitudinal data from routinely collected blood tests to continuously assess the risk of Crohn's disease (CD)-related intestinal surgery, and to construct a simplified tool for clinical application. Patients with a confirmed diagnosis of CD and serial routine blood tests available during long-term follow-up will be included. Longitudinal trajectories of laboratory markers will be characterized, and their association with CD-related intestinal surgery will be evaluated. A full-variable dynamic prediction model will be built using dynamic random survival forest methodology, and a parsimonious model incorporating only the core laboratory markers will be developed via Bayesian joint model. The goal is to establish a practical, non-invasive, and dynamic risk assessment framework to support the transition from reactive to proactive long-term management of CD.

Conditions

  • Crohn Disease (CD)
  • Dynamic Prediction Model

Sponsors & Collaborators

  • Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University

    lead OTHER

Eligibility

Sex
ALL
Healthy Volunteers
No

Timeline & Regulatory

Start
2010-01-01
Primary Completion
2019-12-31
Completion
2026-01-01

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Read the full study record

This page highlights key information. For complete eligibility criteria, study locations, investigator contacts, and the full protocol, visit the original record on ClinicalTrials.gov.

View NCT07644390 on ClinicalTrials.gov