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PMRA and Shapley-Based Machine Learning for Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis in Central Subregions of Clinically Node-Negative Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma: a Prospective Multicenter Validation and Development of a Web Calculator

NCT06871956 · Status: COMPLETED · Type: OBSERVATIONAL · Enrollment: 4882

Last updated 2025-03-12

No results posted yet for this study

Summary

Background:Management of clinically node-negative(cN0) papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) is complicated by high occult lymph node metastasis (LNM) rates. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model for central LNM using machine learning (ML) and traditional nomograms through Probability-based Ranking Model Approach (PMRA).

Methods: We conducted a prospective multicenter study involving 4,882 patients across 3 hospitals (2016-2023). After applying inclusion criteria, 1,953 patients from the primary center were allocated to model train and test (7:3 ratio). External validation included prospective cohorts of 286 and 176 patients from two independent centers.13 ML algorithms and traditional nomogram models were systematically evaluated using PMRA.We compared models using preoperative features alone versus those incorporating both preoperative and intraoperative frozen section pathology data. Feature selection utilized six methods, with L1-based selection proving optimal for most predictions.Model interpretability was enhanced through SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) visualization.

Conditions

  • Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma

Interventions

DIAGNOSTIC_TEST

PMRA and Shapley-Based Machine Learning for Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis in Central Subregions of Clinically Node-Negative Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma

PMRA and Shapley-Based Machine Learning for Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis in Central Subregions of Clinically Node-Negative Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma: A Prospective Multicenter Validation and Development of a Web Calculator

Sponsors & Collaborators

  • First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University

    lead OTHER

Eligibility

Sex
ALL
Healthy Volunteers
No

Timeline & Regulatory

Start
2016-01-01
Primary Completion
2023-12-31
Completion
2023-12-31

Countries

  • China

Study Locations

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Read the full study record

This page highlights key information. For complete eligibility criteria, study locations, investigator contacts, and the full protocol, visit the original record on ClinicalTrials.gov.

View NCT06871956 on ClinicalTrials.gov