Trial Outcomes & Findings for Use of Predictive Modeling to Improve Operating Room Scheduling Efficiency (NCT NCT01892865)

NCT ID: NCT01892865

Last Updated: 2018-01-02

Results Overview

The scheduling imprecision between the two scheduling approaches will be compared. Scheduling imprecision is defined as the difference between the actual and predicted length of operative day.

Recruitment status

COMPLETED

Study phase

NA

Target enrollment

735 participants

Primary outcome timeframe

Three years

Results posted on

2018-01-02

Participant Flow

Calendar days during which vascular surgery operations were performed were randomly scheduled using either the Historical Means or the Predictive Modeling System methodologies. Please, note that unit of randomization was operative days, not patients

Operative days that were on holidays, or when staff surgeons were out of town were excluded. Similarly, did not schedule any cases during the re-calibration of the predictive models

Unit of analysis: Operative Days

Participant milestones

Participant milestones
Measure
Historical Means Method
Scheduling using historical means: Scheduling will be performed taking into account historical means only for anesthetic, operative, and turn around time
Predictive Modeling System (PMS)
Scheduling using regression modeling system: A regression model that uses predictor of operative length will be used to predict operative, anesthetic, and turn around time length
Overall Study
STARTED
356 107
379 100
Overall Study
COMPLETED
356 107
379 100
Overall Study
NOT COMPLETED
0 0
0 0

Reasons for withdrawal

Withdrawal data not reported

Baseline Characteristics

Use of Predictive Modeling to Improve Operating Room Scheduling Efficiency

Baseline characteristics by cohort

Baseline characteristics by cohort
Measure
Historical Means Method
n=107 Operative Days
Scheduling using historical means: Scheduling will be performed taking into account historical means only for anesthetic, operative, and turn around time
Predictive Modeling System (PMS)
n=100 Operative Days
Scheduling using regression modeling system: A regression model that uses predictor of operative length will be used to predict operative, anesthetic, and turn around time length
Total
n=207 Operative Days
Total of all reporting groups
Age, Customized
62 Years
STANDARD_DEVIATION 8 • n=99 Participants
62.5 Years
STANDARD_DEVIATION 10 • n=107 Participants
62.5 Years
STANDARD_DEVIATION 10 • n=206 Participants
Sex/Gender, Customized
Sex · Males
351 Participants
n=99 Participants
373 Participants
n=107 Participants
724 Participants
n=206 Participants
Sex/Gender, Customized
Sex · Females
5 Participants
n=99 Participants
6 Participants
n=107 Participants
11 Participants
n=206 Participants
Available operative days for randomization
107 Operative Days
n=107 Operative Days
100 Operative Days
n=100 Operative Days
207 Operative Days
n=207 Operative Days

PRIMARY outcome

Timeframe: Three years

Population: We analyzed data from 107 operative days in the HM arm, and 100 days in the PMS arm

The scheduling imprecision between the two scheduling approaches will be compared. Scheduling imprecision is defined as the difference between the actual and predicted length of operative day.

Outcome measures

Outcome measures
Measure
Historical Means Method
n=107 Participants
Scheduling using historical means: Scheduling will be performed taking into account historical means only for anesthetic, operative, and turn around time
Predictive Modeling System (PMS)
n=100 Participants
Scheduling using regression modeling system: A regression model that uses predictor of operative length will be used to predict operative, anesthetic, and turn around time length
Difference Between the Actual and Predicted Length of Operative Day (in Minutes)
30.8 Minutes
Standard Deviation 99
7.2 Minutes
Standard Deviation 67

SECONDARY outcome

Timeframe: Three years

Population: Operative days

Difference in total number of cases scheduled per unit of time analyzed between the two study arms

Outcome measures

Outcome measures
Measure
Historical Means Method
n=107 Operative Days
Scheduling using historical means: Scheduling will be performed taking into account historical means only for anesthetic, operative, and turn around time
Predictive Modeling System (PMS)
n=100 Operative Days
Scheduling using regression modeling system: A regression model that uses predictor of operative length will be used to predict operative, anesthetic, and turn around time length
Difference in Throughput
3.33 Operations/day analyzed
3.79 Operations/day analyzed

SECONDARY outcome

Timeframe: Three years

Population: Health care providers

Comparison of job satisfaction between study arms using three domains of the Maslach Burnout Inventory: Depersonalization (range 0-17, score of 17 indicates worse depersonalization). Emotional Exhaustion (range: 0-36, score of 36 is the worse). Personal accomplishment (range 1-60, score of 60 is best).

Outcome measures

Outcome measures
Measure
Historical Means Method
n=61 Responses
Scheduling using historical means: Scheduling will be performed taking into account historical means only for anesthetic, operative, and turn around time
Predictive Modeling System (PMS)
n=53 Responses
Scheduling using regression modeling system: A regression model that uses predictor of operative length will be used to predict operative, anesthetic, and turn around time length
Operative Suite Personnel Job Satisfaction
Depersonalization
3.23 units on a scale
Interval 0.0 to 17.0
2.04 units on a scale
Interval 0.0 to 10.0
Operative Suite Personnel Job Satisfaction
Emotional Exhaustion
11.82 units on a scale
Interval 0.0 to 29.0
10.03 units on a scale
Interval 0.0 to 36.0
Operative Suite Personnel Job Satisfaction
Personal Accomplishment
37.51 units on a scale
Interval 15.0 to 48.0
40.47 units on a scale
Interval 21.0 to 48.0

SECONDARY outcome

Timeframe: Three years

Population: Patients

Comparison of the perioperative (30-day postoperative) composite endpoint of death, myocardial infarction, bleeding, amputation between the two study groups

Outcome measures

Outcome measures
Measure
Historical Means Method
n=356 Participants
Scheduling using historical means: Scheduling will be performed taking into account historical means only for anesthetic, operative, and turn around time
Predictive Modeling System (PMS)
n=379 Participants
Scheduling using regression modeling system: A regression model that uses predictor of operative length will be used to predict operative, anesthetic, and turn around time length
Complications: A Composite Endpoint of Death, Myocardial Infarction, Bleeding, Amputation
8 Participants
12 Participants

Adverse Events

Historical Means Method

Serious events: 0 serious events
Other events: 0 other events
Deaths: 0 deaths

Predictive Modeling System (PMS)

Serious events: 0 serious events
Other events: 0 other events
Deaths: 0 deaths

Serious adverse events

Adverse event data not reported

Other adverse events

Adverse event data not reported

Additional Information

Panos Kougias MD MSc

Michael E. DeBakey VAMC

Phone: 713.794.7700

Results disclosure agreements

  • Principal investigator is a sponsor employee
  • Publication restrictions are in place